Macroeconomically, there are conflicting signals. In March, mortgage lending in the UK increased by a net 12.96 billion pounds, the highest since the pandemic. But the manufacturing PMI in April continued to contract for the seventh consecutive month, dropping to 45.4, with exports posting their largest decline in five years. The market bets that the Bank of England will cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.25% next week, causing the yield on the two - year Treasury bond to plummet. The anticipation of resumed tariff negotiations between the US and China has alleviated global trade tensions to some extent. However, the existing 145% tariff imposed by Trump on China still restricts risk - taking appetite.
Analysts believe that the market is in a "cautiously optimistic" phase, with defensive sectors attracting capital. Despite the continuous rise of the FTSE 100 index, the underlying economic situation is complex and challenging. The future trend of the market remains to be seen, depending on various factors such as the outcome of trade negotiations and the path of interest rates.
